2008 will be remembered as the year where the laptops will outsell their desktop counterparts. Now, if you take mobile computers in all their forms: smartphones, UMPC, subnotebook and of course, laptops, they already easily outsell desktops by far.
How’s that?
Over the years, they have overcomed their weakness and have become more conveniant than desktops.
They evolved from the bulky laptop to a variety of products, each one answering specific needs:
- Weight/Portability: A friend of mine was telling me how she remembers when she had a “portable”, that is, a 30 pounds computer that you were carrying like a suitcase, with an handle.
UMPC and subnotebooks, weighting from 1.5 to less than 3 pounds, answered that need. I was using the Acer Aspire One last weekend and I could barely feel its weight in my bag when I was using my bike. Now, compare that to my 50 pounds desktop. - Lower power consumption/Longer battery life: Subnotebooks are hitting 6-7 hours of battery life with 6-cell batteries and they are likely to get even better when the platform will be improved, as they are using Intel’s old power hungry 945 chipset at the moment. Dell announced a laptop with an optional battery to hit 19 hours of battery life and then just a few days after, HP replied with a 24 hours of battery life laptop. Yes, an entire day of use, withut plugging the laptop in or for normal people like you and me, two days of 12 hours.
- More power: With the new Montevina 2 platform out and the quad-core Yorkfield processors to go along with it, laptops are getting powerful enough for nearly all users.
- Price: With prices going down the drain, starting at $299 for the Eee and even as low as $99 for the Dell Mini Inspiron if you buy it along another Dell laptop, prices are no longer a problem for anyone.
What will happen in the next few years?
I predict that desktop computers, as we know them right now, will become a rare specie. They will most likely adapt to replace servers as we know them today, in which case servers would completely replace supercomputers, which are already being replaced by clusters of servers as we speak now.
Why? Currently, the only user who need more processing power are: Gamers, people who do audio/photo/video editing, researchers and modders/overclockers.
Gamers will move to laptops, as they are portable and they can bring it over to their friends to play online together. Why bring a 50 pounds case to a lanparty, no to mention the fear of breaking a part in the moving process, when you can just pack your laptop in your backpack?
It’s already happening and the transition will go faster with the release of more powerful laptops, along with more customization available. Think barebone, but for a laptop, along with th possibility of choosing pretty much every part, including the video card.
People who do editing will most likely move to laptops given some time, as the hardware evolves. At one point, it will offer enough performance and it will be more conveniant to have a laptop, especially for photographers who travel, to edit their photos on the go.
Of course, researchers and modders/overclockers are likely to stick with desktops for longer, but for how much longer? Who knows.
The average user, also known as the mainstream, will move massively to mobile computers. Dual cores laptops already offer enough power for them and they will be further improved in the future, by
- Reducing power consumption, thus increading battery life.
- Further increasing processing power, with new platforms and cpus.
- Decreasing the price, as they become more and more mass produced.
- Offering more options, as customers ask for more and more manufacturers produce mobile computer, which will increase competition and force them to innovate to increase their market share.
Pineview; Atom’s successor:
Perharps “Pineview”, Intel’s successor for the Atom, might be the one that will officially declare the death of the desktop as we know it. According to Intel’s roadmap, it will contain one or two cores, with hyper-threading, so 2 or 4 logical processors, integrated graphics and a built-in single-channel DDR2 memory controller.
Now, I don’t know if this will be an evolution of the Atom, or will it be based on the upcoming Nehalem processor, considering that it will have integrated graphics and memory controller as well.
Along with that, the Nehalem refresh, will also bring integrated graphics and memory controller to “full-size” laptops.
Both the Pineview and the Nehalem refresh architecture are coming to you in Q3 2009, just in time to Christmas and the new decade, Intel might just be the one companie to release the products which will launch us in a new decade of new and powerful mobile computers.
My take on this:
I’ve owned a laptop for 7 months now, I’m loving it and I’m the verge of selling my desktop to buy a subnotebook. I just don’t see the use in my desktop anymore. What about you?
I think there will always be a place for desktop computers, but they will change their look and place….moving from a big box sitting under your desk, to a sleek console sitting under your TV. After that, desktop computers will start to REPLACE your entire desk as “Surface computing” becomes more mainstream.
I have a laptop and an external hard drive for backup, I haven’t owned a desktop in over decade. Laptops worked well in college, when traveling, and in the corporate world. I don’t see why I would ever need to own a desktop. Great article!
As someone who is moving into research, I feel the power of the desktop is rarely needed. A better solution which is being implemented is the centralised almost supercomputerish servers which perform all the heavy stuff and fire back the results over the network. Better as IT can keep a very close eye on the server grid and researchers dont have to have bigish desktops.
theburtonempire,
You are correct. Everything over the next few years is going into the virtualization realm. Basically we are going back to the mainframe days with much more modern features. In the near future you will see fully virtualized server clusters controlling thin virtualized desktops which are running virtualized apps that are streaming from the servers. Security is much easy in this type of topology and D/R is a SNAPshot away.
theburtonempire,
You are correct. Everything over the next few years is going into the virtualization realm. Basically we are going back to the mainframe days with much more modern features. In the near future you will see fully virtualized server clusters controlling thin virtualized desktops which are running virtualized apps that are streaming from the servers. Security is much easy in this type of topology and D/R is a SNAPshot away.
@ YFNCG: Very interesting point of view, I agree that surface computing could very well replace desktops computers. Media centers are already popular for use with TVs and they can easily be assembled in small factor cases.
@GetSmartGal: I still own a desktop, although I barely use it. I use it to store TV shows, movies and content on the two hard drives/network so I can access it with my laptop anywhere in the house. It’s also faster when I want to burn something on a DVD or do cpu-intensive tasks, like converting a video from one format to another.
@theburtonempire: Yes, that is true, a centralised cluster is a better approach for research companies.
@Michael: I have some doubts on that. First of all, can the current networks handle all the bandwidth that virtualization requires? Also, not every area have access nor everyone wants to pay for broadband. Also, if the server crashes, you can’t fix it yourself, you have to wait.
I’m sure that some people will switch to that, as long as the prices are good, the downtime is kept at a very low level and that the latency is kept at a minimum. I also think that most people prefer having the hardware in their hands.
Stupid article. Mobile hardware have always been derived from desktop tech. Unless that changes, I don’t see the desktop as we know disappearing any time soon. Case and point; the impending release of Nehalem. There won’t be a mobile chip until Q4 2009. Besides, laptops just don’t cut it for true power users. Sure, there are quad core laptops now, but they are far from common and they cost considerably more than a comparably configured desktop.
I also find it funny that someone like you, who describe yourself as “passionated about everything related to computers” and “enjoys overclocking, water-cooling, modding and getting the most performance from any computer” would find a laptop sufficient. I guess you’re not a hardcore user after all.
I don’t think desktops are going anywhere anytime soon. Desktops are inherently more comfortable. If you’re not going to be moving, why bother with a smaller keyboard, smaller screen, and less upgradability. Sure, upgradability only reaches a few of us, but it’s still something to consider.
Some of us spend 12h+ a day on a computer. A laptop usually doesn’t cut it. There’s no way i’d use a laptop, no matter how big (17″?) in a stationary setting. I’ve got a large, yet quiet desktop with 2 monitors at home … but keep a 12″ laptop in my backpack. My laptop keeps me productive on the go knowing that i can go home to crunch numbers and watch a movie at the same time.
There’s indeed no doubt that the desktop arena will be changing in the future. Getting smaller without being underpowered for 95% of people, less power hungry etc etc …
Laptops are great for working on the couch, but who does that all the time?
Here is the problem. Laptops are getting more powerful, but cooling technologies are not keeping up with the laptops. How about manufacturers focus on building laptops designed to be run 24/7 that can be used as often and with every purpose as a desktop. Unfortunately they don’t do that. Laptops are getting more portable for simple things like browsing websites and doing simple work processing on computers, but if you need to do anything that any professional would need to do with a computer, cooling is essential and these laptops are portable space heaters that might burn your laptop if you don’t sport some kind of insulator on your lap. I like to call them cheap box netbooks. They may be more portable but they still are not designed for people who know wtf they are doing.
Also, as people ask for more convenience with operating systems like vista, you will have to see a performance increase on a regular basis as with each upgrade / service pack performance will be drained from the laptops. As this happens, key things come into play. With desktops, you have the option of upgrading to that top of the line cpu for your motherboard you couldn’t afford when you first built your system, and maxing out your 4 slots with 8gb of memory + filling up your tower with hard drives because you decided you wanted to get into video editing. No matter what anybody says, external drives still don’t compare with internally connected unless you can afford fiber channel or external SCSI enclosures.
Anyways, my 2 dollars :p
They should invent external graphic cards or something for laptops so gaming becomes easier too
or just make the graphic cards stronger and upgradable
I agree with those who say that the desktop will likely morph and combine with the TV, but I think even as just a computer, it will be around longer than most people think. True, maybe your average user won’t “need” a desktop, but a lot of families just want one computer to set up somewhere and that everyone uses. It doesn’t need to be mobile; it just needs to be cheap and desktops will always be cheaper than laptops.
Desktops are cheaper. My workmate is an upgrade-junkie, so I get first dibs on his old bits every 18 months. My current X2 4600+ / 8600GT / 2GB DDR-400 rig cost me beans. It’s big, heavy, and ugly, but quiet, powerful, and CHEAP. My boys can play GuildWars, I can play TF2. I could drop in a 9800GT and play most anything. My PC is 8 years old, but everything in it has been replaced at least once in that time (including the case, 3 times). Try that with a laptop..
I still require a desktop for anything ‘powerful’ like games, multiple monitors, or just getting a lot of work done at my desk. Maybe if my laptop was hooked up where my desktop is, with a good docking station, I would favor the laptop, but then I wouldn’t really be using the portability. I really just don’t need the mobility, and when I do and am working on the laptop, I usually wish I was working on my desktop.
Cost. My computer was $700 in 2001. I’ve spent a bit of change since then, but probably less even then someone buying the lowest end box at Bestbuy.
Right now it’s dual core running at 3 ghz (fast enough to encode DVDs to x264 video), has a terabyte of space (can store said video), and can power most games on a 24″ monitor. It’s not just the 3 grand cost of a comparable laptop, it’s the fact I’d have to spend $500 or even buy a new laptop when I needed anything else. For me that isn’t acceptable.
When the laptop running Pineview is released next year, I’m going to pump my dollars to get hold of one of the lightest mobile laptop for myself. The one that I have been having and proud to talk about has been 5 years old, and to be honest, it’s a good as it can be and I’m extremely happy with it. However, it’s just the weight that is of concern, 5kg!
I do think the desktop computer is fast becoming obsolete. I would be lost without my laptop…
Hi Mathieu,
I have to thank you for giving your opinion about the review and correcting a few glitches of mine.
Now about the topic. As a salesman in a hardware store, I can confirm that people(the mainstream) are going for notebooks more and more every day. Even gamers come and want to sell their desktop machines and exchange it for power notebooks. Everyone has a wireless networks with internet at their homes now, and as PC’s/Internet is replacing the TV as a primary entertainment source, but still being more of a personal thing, people like to bring over their stuff with them to play games, watch clips, surf the internet together, socialize on facebook.. or any other kinky stuff they do while hanging out.
BUT I still do like my desktop machine more. Why? Well I have never seen a notebook with a 22″ monitor and if there was, I’m sure I won’t carry around that thing at the local coffee shop or on a train for that matter. I like big monitors and thats it. I like my taskbar to be full with opened applications, and never worry about them closing anytime. And I simply love when I get up in the morning and just move my mouse to see the morning news in an instant. Don’t get me wrong, I too own a netbook for a while and I really think its great for times when I need to visit 10 places in one day and use the internet at the same time, or simply gather with my buddies for a chat and have something to stare at while talking but desktop is still my primary pc for work and entertainment.
As Keith mentioned, maybe I too could use a docking station and a big monitor while using the PC at home, but I believe that time will come when netbooks with equal power of a core2quad will be made.
P.S. You have a typo too: “Reducing power consumption, thus increaDing battery life.” 😉
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Desktops are not going to go away. Creative types, gamers, researchers, and coders all have a use for muliple monitors, and once you pass 2, you’re either going to need a very expensive upgrade card, or a desktop. The points brought up above about large screens are also significant. While I do love my laptop (15″ MacBook Pro), I’m thinking of building a desktop. My laptop cost $2000, and is fairly high end, but it’s already falling behind in some respects (gaming). A desktop gives me the ability to upgrade individual parts cheaply, and if one part breaks, I am not required to spend a huge amount of money for a proprietary part.
Most laptops aren’t wide screen and the screen size isn’t big enough compared to regular lcd monitors. HP makes an affordible 16 inch wide screen but the only problem is the excessive reflective glossy glare. If you are going to replace the desktop with a laptop, you definitely need a laptop stand so that the screen is placed properly. If you don’t do that, you will end up with severe neck and back strain, in addition to wrist problems if you use the keyboard (best to get a separate one) on the laptop. Also, the screen size is so small that you likely will shift your face or the laptop closer which could burn (heat from the keyboard or the vents on the sides) your face and cause eye strain and expose the laptop to possible falls from the desk. I have to concur that laptops are great for being mobile and that the desktop will eventually be replaced in most homes but it will be replaced by the all-in-one entertainment system (big screen with all the works and then some). I considered buying a dell or apple all-in-one machine but I have a problem with sending it to an authorized dealer for basic upgrades. If I have to do that then I am better off buying a laptop because at least it can be mobile. But laptops are great to conserve energy but at a price (neck injury, less processing power, eye strain, etc). So eating up energy costs might be a better thing to do right now than buying a laptop at the infancy of the mainstreaming of laptops to the average home pc user.